“Vaccines vs Variants” has brought us this far. It’s time for a new story.

(Note this is an unpublished manuscript. The text is unchanged from April 27th, 2021.)

On April 9th, facing a surge driven by the Covid variant B.1.1.7, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer declared her state a Covid hotspot and asked the federal government for additional support with their vaccination efforts.

CDC Director Rachel Walensky responded, “The answer is not necessarily to give vaccine … the answer to that is really to close things down.” White House senior advisor Andy Slavitt elaborated “those variants are also present in other states… playing Whack-a-Mole isn’t the strategy that public health leaders and scientists have laid out.”

Public health officials have fallen victim to their own communication strategies. Since the first discoveries of B.1.1.7 in the United State, the dominant message has been “double down on existing measures”, “vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible” and “resist the temptation to open up too soon”. This is the ubiquitous “Vaccines vs Variants” narrative, in which our collective perseverance could or would prevent the oncoming variant-induced surge.

Dr. Walensky explained, “I know these variants are concerning… Fortunately, the science to date suggests that the same prevention of actions apply to these variants. This includes wearing a well-fitting mask that completely covers your nose and mouth; social distancing when around others who don’t live with you; avoiding travel, crowds, and poorly ventilated spaces; washing your hands often; and getting vaccinated when the vaccine is available to you.”

This frame ducked a hard truth; these measures could slow but not prevent a hidden epidemic, masked by the retreats from the devastating fall and winter wave. This epidemic is full swing, claiming thousands of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and with many more to come.

In the last days of 2020, sophisticated analyses of the second English lockdown demonstrated conclusively the ability of B.1.1.7 to overcome prevailing control measures, and compelled the nation into yet stricter and ongoing controls to contain the crisis of the new variant until vaccination campaigns could take hold.

Continental nations followed, imposing lockdowns with mixed success. France and Germany attempted managed reopenings and failed decisively. In North America, Ontario minister Doug Ford paid the price for lax policies as an increasingly overrun medical system forced the province to impose an April stay-at-home order.

The United States benefits from comparably later introductions of B.1.1.7, favorable seasonal effects and a faster than expected vaccination campaign, offering hope that the nation might beat out a variant driven spring wave. But the diversity and size of the country precluded the coordinated and soberly managed reopenings of official talking points as B.1.1.7 and other highly transmissible variants achieved dominance amidst a background of inevitably diverse reopenings.

On March 29th, Dr. Walensky broke script, sharing, “I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom. We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are, and so much reason for hope, but right now I’m scared.”

Overall Covid cases are dropping, but health officials understand that we are entering a new phase of the pandemic. As cases resume their drop, much of the nation looks to resuming normal life, and not without reason. However as vaccination rates stalling in some areas of the country, variants are not coming — they are here. It’s time for a new story.

Jeffrey Tran studied Non-Linear Dynamics at Northwestern University and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He is a global interest rate trader and philanthropist.